Much has happened in the past week to affect the outcome of the Republican presidential primary. Trump had a particularly poor performance at Thursday’s debate – though as we reported, the questions posed in the debate were biased against Trump and favored Rubio.After the debate, Trump made the decision to skip speaking at CPAC, though as many pointed out, this could be because a walkout by Cruz supporters was planned against him (and most at CPAC are Cruz fans).
In the past week, much has changed, and one of the ways we can measure this is by prediction markets. FOX News host John Stossel’s website electionbettingodds.com aggregates the election betting odds on this primary and calculates the probability of which candidate will win the primary based off those bets.It’s surprisingly accurate, often outperforming the polls in predicting elections. Insider trading is technically legal in election betting, and there will always be insiders placing bets to make the odds accurately reflect the true probabilities of each candidate’s victory.
After a poor debate performance and skipping on CPAC, the odds have worsened for Trump, and sweetened the most for Cruz.
In the past day, Trump’s odds of winning the Republican primary have fallen 8.7 percentage points to 57 percent, while Cruz’s rose 10.3 percentage points to 18.4%. In the past week, Trump’s odds have fallen 20 percentage points.With Super Saturday playing out in Cruz’s favor so far, will the odds continue to shift in Cruz’s favor?
[Note: This post was authored by The Analytical Economi