Every week it seems there’s a new scandal, real or imagined, related to President Donald Trump’s administration. Could they finally do some actual damage?Anyone who checked their 401(k) balance today would’ve seen a small plunge in their account value, and the market is reacting negatively to two recent scandals in particular: first Washington Post source which cited an anonymous source claiming that Trump shared classified information with Russia’s ambassador, and then a New York Times report claiming Trump asked James Comey to end the investigation into Michael Flynn.
Banking stocks, who’ve been the largest beneficiaries of the so-called “Trump trade,” have been the biggest losers today. Meanwhile the VIX index (which measures market volatility) had its largest one-day increase today since the November election. The main concern is that Trump’s scandals will prevent him from enacting his agenda, particularly on tax reform.
And some gamblers are betting on the extreme: that Trump won’t complete his first term.
According to the Daily Mail,British gamblers believe U.S. President Donald Trump is now more likely to leave office before the end of his first term than not, British bookmakers said on Wednesday, after a week of tumult at the White House.Betfair said that punters had bet more than 5,000 pounds ($6,470) on an early departure for Trump in the hours after it was reported he had asked his then-FBI Director James Comey to shut down an investigation into ties between former White House national security adviser Michael Flynn and Russia.
The odds according to the bets placed thus far imply a 55 percent chance that Trump will not make it to the end of his first term, however, given that less than $10,000 are actually at stake here, we can treat that as the equivalent of a small sample size.
John Stossel’s Electionbettingodds.com has the following odds for the year Trump will leave office (for all causes except assassination), with nearly $500,000 wagered.
Take this all with a grain of salt however, as right up until Election Day, the UK’s bookies gave Hillary Clinton an 85 percent chance of winning.