Donald Trump may have dubbed CNN “fake news” (and later, “very fake news”), but he’s going to be pleased when he sees their reporting on the stock market’s rally since he took office.Of course, the historic rally really began following Election day. In 29 trading days following the election, the Dow Jones closed at an all time high 17 of those days (contrary to what the “experts” predicted). But whatever time-frame you look at, such as his first 100 days, the picture remains the same.
And amazingly, CNN is reporting the truth. For once.As CNN reported, The Trump rally has come in three waves. It was kicked off soon after the election with exuberance over the Trump agenda. It was dealt a blow by political reality, and has since matured into cautious optimism.
All in all, the stock market performance through President Trump’s 100th day in office on Saturday looks impressive.
The S&P 500 has rallied 11.6 percent between Trump’s election victory and Friday, the final day before the 100-day mark. That’s the second-best performance for that period, since an 18 percent surge under President Kennedy in 1961, according to CFRA Research. The S&P 500 soared 12.3 percent through the same point under President George H. W. Bush in 1989.“Wall Street has awarded President Trump an A for ‘anticipation,'” Sam Stovall, CFRA’s chief investment strategist, wrote in a report.
Anticipation of a pro-growth policy — massive tax cuts, infrastructure spending and deregulation — fired Wall Street up immediately after the election.
So much so that most of the Trump rally actually took place long before he ever took power. Roughly 53 percent of the S&P 500’s total post-election rally happened by December 13, according to an analysis of FactSet data.This table shows how Trump’s market performance stacks up since election day (note: Trump outperforms H.W. Bush if we isolate the first 100 days in office):
Even if we are to look at all presidents since the 20th century, not just post-WWII leaders, the picture doesn’t change much. FDR had an incredible 40-plus percent gain from election day to his 100th day in office, but that’s attributable to some extent to reversion to the mean, as the market had suffered historic drops under Herbert Hoover (such as Black Thursday, and Black Tuesday).
So far, so good. Of course, what really matters is Trump following through on his campaign promises, for without that, the anticipation propping up the market will pop like a balloon.
[Note: This post was authored by Matt Palumbo. Follow him on Twitter @MattPalumbo12]