With each passing day, it becomes clearer that the crazy food fight to select our Republican candidate for president will continue to an even crazier climax at the convention this summer.The pundits are all predicting no candidate will reach the magic 1,237 number of delegates and so the rounds of voting will begin. If Donald Trump is 40 or 50 delegates short and isn’t able to convince any of the 100 or so “open delegates” or Marco Rubio’s delegates – or anyone else’s for that matter – there will be several more votes with time in between for both Trump and Ted Cruz to convince delegates to flip. But that’s only one scenario…
There’s that infamous “Rule Number 40(b),” which states: Each candidate for nomination for President of the United States and Vice President of the United States shall demonstrate the support of a majority of the delegates from each of eight (8) or more states, severally, prior to the presentation of the name of that candidate for nomination. Notwithstanding any other provisions of these rules or any rule of the House of Representatives, to demonstrate the support required of this paragraph a certificate evidencing the affirmative written support of the required number of permanently seated delegates from each of the eight (8) or more states shall have been submitted to the secretary of the convention not later than one (1) hour prior to the placing of the names of candidates for nomination pursuant to this rule and the established order of business.
So that counts out John Kasich? Nope.
As Real Clear Politics reported way back in December, Republican lawyer Ben Ginsberg and University of Georgia political science lecturer Josh Putnam emphasized …that Rule 40(b) is temporary. In the week before the 2016 convention, the delegates will have multiple opportunities to change it, so no GOP presidential campaign has to worry about getting delegate majorities in at least eight states.And that’s probably why RNC chair Reince Priebus was so reluctant on Tuesday night to say the nominee would be either Cruz or Trump. He’s well aware the rule can be changed, and would only say the nominee would be someone who’s running now.
No one can predict how this one’s going to turn out, but I can predict with certainty it’s going to be ugly.Michele Hickford]