We all know to take polls with a grain of salt; nonetheless, they can be useful indicators of trends, especially within the same poll over time.And the newest Marquette University poll shows a very promising trend for supporters of Ted Cruz. The candidate’s support has more than doubled from a month ago in the same poll, while GOP frontrunner Donald Trump’s has held steady.
Also spiking is support for the candidate who has no path to the nomination except a contested convention, Gov. John Kasich. And, as Josh Jordan notes, it appears like that Kasich will cost Cruz delegates. As we’ve reported previously, polls suggest Kasich’s continued presence in the race hurts Cruz and helps Trump.Via Fox 6 Milwaukee:
A new Marquette Law School Poll finds Ted Cruz ahead in the Wisconsin Republican presidential primary race, supported by 40 percent of likely voters to 30 percent for Donald Trump and 21 percent for John Kasich, while 8 percent don’t know whom they will support.
In the previous Marquette Law School Poll released in February, Trump was supported by 30 percent of Republican primary voters, with Cruz at 19 percent and Kasich at 8 percent. Other candidates who have since dropped out had a total of 31 percent.The poll was conducted March 24-28, 2016. Results for the Republican primary are based on 471 likely voters who say they are certain they will vote in the Republican primary in April. That sample has a margin of error of +/-5.8 percentage points.
While the month-over-month trend in the Marquette poll is dramatic and shows Cruz jumping ahead by double digits, a separate poll released today by Public Policy Polling finds the Wisconsin race in a dead heat between Trump and Cruz, as The Hill reports:
A survey released Thursday by the left-leaning Public Policy Polling found that Cruz leads with 38 percent support, with Trump right behind at 37 percent — within the margin of error.
John Kasich follows with 17 percent.
In a head-to-head matchup with Trump, Cruz leads by a wider margin, 49 to 41 percent. The poll found that 51 percent of Kasich voters would support Cruz if the Ohio governor left the race, while 19 percent would move to Trump.
Of course, both polls were taken a week before the primary — and before some of the latest drama has unfolded on the campaign trail this week — and in politics, a lot can happen in a week.
What does seem clear from both polls is that it’s game on in Wisconsin on April 5th.
[Note: This article was written by Michelle Jesse, Associate Editor]