Liberals and their media would want you to believe that presumptive GOP nominee Donald Trump has no chance of earning a single Latino vote. Even when numbers suggest otherwise — for example, when Trump claimed a win in Nevada with 46 percent of the Hispanic vote — then suddenly, critics cite small sample size to discredit them.So how will they respond to a sample size of one MILLION Hispanics that reveals support for Trump on the rise at 37%, compared to just 41% for his presumptive general election rival, Hillary Clinton? Perhaps even more surprising — especially to liberals and #NeverTrumpers — is that the candidates tie in negative sentiment across Hispanics, at 38 percent. As Clinton panders while Trump speaks his mind with sometimes controversial comments, Hispanics dislike both candidates equally.
As Lili Gil Valletta writes for Fox News Latino:Whether you agree with him or not, his [Donald Trump’s] rise and political success is undeniable. He has activated a sentiment in people that appeals to the raw emotion of Washington frustration. On the other hand, he has also set a tone in which public labeling, divisive rhetoric and racially charged comments are “OK” in the public eye, and has unraveled a whole new way of freedom of speech in America.
But even with all this, after insulting women, attacking public figures, mistreating journalists, judging the judge and calling Mexicans criminals and rapists, his appeal is on the rise even among Hispanics.
Numerous articles and Op-Eds have discounted his so-called “rise” among Latinos by pointing out the flawed nature of polls. Back in February, after claiming a win with 46 percent of the Hispanic vote in Nevada, critics quickly challenged the full sample size of voters captured to disregard the number. Most recently, Latino Decisions published an article called “Why Polls On Latinos Get It Wrong,” confirming that current ways of polling are under-representing Latinos’ voice.Clearly, conventional political research is in question, but what if big data analysis reveals Trump’s rise is real, based on a sample size of over 1 million Hispanics?
Based on big data analysis over the last 30 days as of June 1st, Trump reports 37 percent of Hispanic positive sentiment versus 41 percent for Clinton. Surprisingly, the candidates tie in negative sentiment across Hispanics at 38 percent, discounting the fact that Latinos default as Democrats or are completely turned off by Trump’s off-color comments. After all, over 50 percent of Latinos identify as political independents.
Similar analysis has been done leading up to the primaries, which have demonstrated a direct correlation between positive sentiment and actual voting results.
I have been writing since February about this new way to mine political intelligence, which leverages the power of big data analysis via artificial intelligence, keyword Boolean, search analysis, keyword spiders, site scraping, text analytics and machine learning/tagging under the proprietary methodology of CulturIntel™. It is mining, not social listening; it is big data of millions, not just a few thousands, surveyed. If this methodology is good enough for the Harvard Medical School to conduct healthcare research and for major corporations to mine business intelligence, why not use it for political strategy?
Everyone may have an opinion but real strategic power comes from data. Clearly, while many may criticize Trump’s methodology, many are agreeing with his ideology; and, this time, it’s the data speaking, not me.So, liberals, put that in your pipe and smoke it.
Of course, the data Ms. Valletta refers to goes only up until June 1 — which, notably, was prior to the recent firestorm surrounding the Trump University judge’s Mexican heritage. What will be very telling is to see how Latino sentiment changes this month in the wake of this latest firestorm.
[Note: This article was written by Michelle Jesse, Associate Editor]