The GOP race seems to be about ONE candidate: Donald Trump. He dominates the news cycle. He dominates Twitter. He attracts thousands of people to his rallies – including those who don’t support him at all (and that’s putting it mildly). He dominates the polls. He dominates the delegate count. His momentum is unstoppable…or is it?
Michael Barone of the Washington Examiner today presents a very interesting chart of the Republican race so far, showing the percentage of the vote each candidate has received. When you look at it this way, Trump’s lead doesn’t look so YUGE, and his certainty of winning the nomination isn’t in the bag.
The chart shows the percentage of the total vote that has been going to Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio and John Kasich put together, plus other candidates in the four February contests, in the March 1 Super Tuesday contests and in the contests from March 5 to March 12.
Barone says, The vote for “other candidates “has plunged, as one after another has left the race, from 18 percent to 4 percent. But Trump, unlike previous front-runners for the Republican nomination, has gained very little, going from 33 to 37 percent — very far short of a majority.
The big winner has been Ted Cruz, who in March has been getting slightly more votes than Rubio and Kasich put together. Backers of other candidates might argue that Cruz’s totals are inflated by his big victory in his home state of Texas, the nation’s second largest state. But the pattern is fairly clear. If, as polls suggest, Rubio loses Florida, he will likely either withdraw or cease to be a serious factor. Then the question will become whether Cruz or Kasich can expand their constituencies.
My bet would be on Cruz, who currently has 370 delegates to 63 for Kasich, and that it behooves Cruz to argue to upscale primary voters that a vote for Kasich is a vote for Trump.In my (Michele Hickford’s) opinion, unless they start winning big, Kasich and Rubio need to drop out of the race. Let Cruz and Trump duke it out. Let’s see where the true will of the people lies.
[Note: This article was written by Michele Hickford]