Statistician Nate Silver is best known for his blog FiveThirtyEight, and his political predictions. The name of the blog reflects the 538 electors in the electoral college.
In 2008 he successfully predicted how 49 of the 50 states would vote – and in 2012 he correctly predicted all fifty. Now, as the Washington Times reports, he’s made his predictions on the 2016 election public.
Mr. Silver admitted that he initially gave Mr. Trump only a 5 percent chance of capturing the Republican nomination, saying he would peak early and “flame out” like 2012 presidential contender Herman Cain.
A jump from 5 to 25 percent is a pretty big jump for sure.
Of course, assigning a 5 percent chance of a Trump victory and Trump winning doesn’t necessarily mean that he was wrong. It means that the odds were stacked against him and he won anyway. Someone winning the lottery doesn’t disprove that the odds of winning are close to zero.Also keep in mind that those are his odds as of today. A lot could happen between now and November.
If you held the election today — there’s enough polling to know that today, Clinton would very probably win, but you can have recessions, you can have terror attacks, Clinton is not a very popular candidate herself, maybe Trump is a black swan,” Mr. Silver said. “So I don’t know. I put Trump’s chances of becoming president at 25 percent, much higher today than a year ago.”Yes, like FIVE TIMES higher.
According to the betting odds, Trump has a 24 percent chance of winning the presidency, roughly the same as what Silver predicts. Keep in mind however that those same odds only gave Trump a nine percent chance of winning the presidency in November of last year.
Circumstances are always changing, and with an FBI investigation in the works, it’ll be interesting to sit back and see if the odds flip.
[Note: This post was authored by Matt Palumbo. Follow him on Twitter @MattPalumbo12]