Anyone will tell you that we’re headed into a contested convention at this point.It’s unlikely any candidate will receive the 1,237 delegates needed to secure the nomination for the GOP convention – and Kasich appears to be remaining in the race for the sole purpose of making it so. The majority of GOP insiders are predicting a contested convention – and some have even gone on TV to announce that would be the most likely turn of events.
In the words of unbound GOP delegate Curly Haugland “we choose the nominee, not the voters.”Haugland is one of 112 unbound delegates. However, even if the establishment attempts to dethrone Trump at the RNC, they may still be short on the number of unbound delegates needed to make toppling him a reality. In fact, that’s what the Trump campaign thinks. In fact, they think they’ve got it in the bag.
Via the Washington Post, according to an internal memo from the Trump campaign:
Donald Trump’s campaign advisers believe the billionaire mogul is emerging as the “prohibitive favorite” in the Republican presidential race and project that he will accumulate more than 1,400 delegates to secure the nomination on the first round of balloting at the party’s Cleveland convention.The projections come in a memo distributed to Trump surrogates late Tuesday night containing talking points for use in media interviews this week. The memo, obtained by The Washington Post, describes Trump’s commanding win in the New York primary as “YUGE” and encourages his supporters to speak out about what Trump has described as a “rigged” process of selecting delegates for the Republican National Convention in July.
How likely is it? He may not reach quite 1,400, but Trump still commands a 50 percent lead over Cruz in terms of delegates, and that’s going to be a tough gap to close – contested convention or not.
[Note: This post was authored by The Analytical Economist