There’s a disturbing trend happening in the polls in recent days — disturbing, that is, if you are Hillary Clinton or one of her Kool-Aid drinking supporters. Following Hillary’s post-convention bounce, many polls are now showing her support continuing to backslide.Her lead is disappearing.
As we’ve been reporting, multiple polls now show a neck-and-neck race nationally between Hillary and her GOP rival, Donald Trump.At the same time, Trump is gaining ground in several key battleground states; notably, two recent polls show him ahead in mother-of-all-battleground states, Florida. Even in Pennsylvania, a state many pundits are predicting is a can’t-win for Trump, a recent Emerson poll shows Trump trailing by just 3 points.
Echoing the trend of Hillary’s downward momentum is the latest Rasmussen Reports poll out today, showing her lead is gone.
Hillary Clinton’s post-convention lead has disappeared, putting her behind Donald Trump for the first time nationally since mid-July.The latest weekly Rasmussen Reports White House Watch national telephone and online survey shows Trump with 40% support to Clinton’s 39% among Likely U.S. Voters, after Clinton led 42% to 38% a week ago. Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson now earns seven percent (7%) of the vote, down from nine percent (9%) the previous two weeks, while Green Party candidate Jill Stein picks up three percent (3%) support. Three percent (3%) like some other candidate, and seven percent (7%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)
Clinton’s support has been trending down from a high of 44% in early August just after the Democratic National Convention. This is her lowest level of support since mid-July. Trump’s support has been eroding, too, from his high of 44% at that time. A one-point lead is statistically insignificant in a survey with a +/- 3 percentage point of margin of error. It highlights, however, that this remains a very close race.
Both major candidates have lost some support this week from voters in their respective parties. Trump now has the backing of 71% of Republicans, down from 76% a week ago. Clinton has 73% of the Democratic vote, down from 79% in the previous survey. Trump attracts 15% of Democrats, while 12% of Republicans prefer Clinton. The GOP nominee continues to hold a small lead among voters not affiliated with either major political party, this week leading 36% to 28%.Johnson draws support from eight percent (8%) of Republicans, three percent (3%) of Democrats and 12% of unaffiliated voters. Stein earns six percent (6%) of the vote among unaffiliateds.
Some have suggested that Trump has hidden support among voters who are unwilling to say publicly where they stand because they’re fearful of criticism. We won’t know for sure until Election Day, but Republicans are clearly more reluctant than Democrats this year to say how they are going to vote.
Read more about the “secret Trump vote” here. Another factor that has the potential to significantly swing the final results on election day is the large group of Americans who sat on the sidelines last time. As the USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times Daybreak tracking poll suggestsThe existence of a bloc of disaffected voters large enough to potentially swing the election Trump’s way is the main finding from an analysis of the first eight weeks of the daily tracking poll.
Whether Trump can convert a significant number of those potential supporters into voters over the final two months of the presidential campaign could determine whether the election ends up as a close contest or a runaway for Hillary Clinton.
The key group driving that result are people who sat out the 2012 election but say they plan to vote this year.
Question to the folks who might consider staying home this year: easier to hold your nose for one day to vote for a candidate who may not be your first choice — or spend it holding your nose, not to mention handing over your pocketbook and your liberties, for the next four?
[Note: This article was written by Michelle Jesse, Associate Editor]