It is without a doubt the number one news story for this day: the results of last night’s Super Tuesday primary. Again, I feel no need to address the results of the Democrat primary because neither of the candidates evidence qualifications to lead America. One is an avowed socialist, the other is a manipulative liar who abandoned Americans to die. ‘Nuff said.Now, we all know who won last night but this all comes down to one word: ego.
There are five individuals remaining on the GOP side and somewhere in back rooms there are calculations going on. The race has come down to three candidates on the GOP side, in alphabetical order: Cruz, Rubio, and Trump.There are two individuals who are in the death throes of existence for their respective campaigns, but you can’t tell them that. But let’s be honest, Ohio Governor John Kasich is holding on for his home state believing he’ll find victory there and indeed across the Midwest. You know there are some back door types calling Kasich everything but a child of God for not dropping out of this race. The belief is that Kasich’s support would go over to Senator Marco Rubio and make him the viable candidate against Trump.
Here is the time sensitive issue. The Florida primary is in two weeks. If Marco Rubio can’t win in his home state of Florida, his endeavor is dead. Interestingly enough, Donald Trump has many properties in Florida and Ben Carson resides in West Palm Beach, Florida. There are some super PAC chuckleheads who’ve stupidly allowed it to be known they’re putting up $25 million to destroy Donald Trump in Florida in support of Marco Rubio.
This reminds me of the Mitt Romney assault on former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich after the latter won a huge primary victory in South Carolina. Romney ended up winning in Florida, but went on to be destroyed in the general election. Man, we do not need a repeat of that electoral Waterloo!So here’s the scenario: what if Marco Rubio, who did finally win a caucus in Minnesota – a state that gave us Governor Jesse Ventura and Senator Al Franken – doesn’t win in Florida? What justification will he have to continue on? And remember the Ohio primary is the same day as Florida, on March 15th. So I can’t see Kasich bowing out before his day in the spotlight in his home state. So what happens in two weeks if Donald Trump wins in Ohio and Florida? It’s what some would call, game, set, and match. The egos will have lost and both Kasich and Rubio will have to “suspend” their campaigns. And where will their support go? Well, I can only assess it ends up despondent as the only viable choices are Cruz and Trump. If Rubio loses Florida and Kasich can pull off Ohio, look for Kasich to demand Rubio drop out and endorse him.
And what happens with Dr. Ben Carson? Well, as long as he stays in, he plays spoiler. But is it possible, if both Kasich and Rubio lose in two weeks, that Dr. Carson believes he could acquire their support and endorsement? I’m struggling to find the synergy that ends up with either Kasich or Rubio supporting Senator Ted Cruz.
One thing for certain, the effort has begun to try and find a winning formula to “Stop Trump.” And honestly, the contests in two weeks will determine if that will be possible.Ted Cruz did what was necessary to keep hope alive for his campaign, winning in Texas, Oklahoma and Alaska (so much for Sarah Palin’s endorsement of Trump).
I would surmise that in these next two weeks, there will be little negative said by the Cruz campaign about Rubio or Kasich. Dr. Carson is playing a game of musical chairs and keeps being the fella left standing. The relationship between Carson and Cruz is poisoned. The Carson people are not Kasich types, so the only viable place for Carson’s support may be to Rubio — and that electorate could help the Florida Senator, but it’s not happening.
As long as Dr. Ben Carson stays in the race, he benefits Donald Trump because the field doesn’t tighten.Now, here’s the real deal. I find it unconscionable that the GOP establishment is crying about Donald Trump being the end of the Republican Party. The truth is that the GOP establishment created Donald Trump. They begged to be trusted with the majority in the House and Senate, and were blessed with such. Now, ask yourself – and let’s just use the last Omnibus spending bill as example — does anyone trust or believe in the GOP that has the largest majorities on Capitol Hill post World War II?
And when the GOP establishment and its pundits refer to Trump supporters as unintelligent and uninformed, well, it just emboldens them and they dig in their heels harder.
I’ve heard of discussions of a Trump-Cruz ticket. I remember President Lincoln’s “team of rivals” concept, but that ticket would be REALLY interesting. I don’t know if after being called a liar and nasty, Cruz would join forces with The Donald. But, as you look at the upcoming primary contests, the lineup of states doesn’t bode well for Senator Cruz.
Super Tuesday was supposed to be Ted Cruz’s big day across the South and of course in Texas. He did not hit the magic number of 50.1 percent or above in Texas so he does not get all 155 delegates. Cruz won only two other states on the day that was supposed to be his breakout – Oklahoma and Alaska.
At this point, Donald Trump leads in every winner take all state coming up on March 15th. That day, two weeks from now, will be the tell-tale. There is no chance for John Kasich or Ben Carson to drop out before that date. And that sets up what could be the greatest nightmare of the GOP establishment: Rubio, their only hope, could be done. Who will be a head-to-head competitor with Donald Trump? At this moment, ego stands in the way and in the strategic perspective, the best thing that could have happened for Donald J. Trump is that Ted Cruz won Texas, Oklahoma (and Alaska), Marco Rubio won Minnesota, and John Kasich finished strong in Vermont.
Each of those candidates will tout success, and a pyrrhic victory. Aside from Trump, in the end they’re still holding on to some hope that they can win. And the expanded field only serves to sustain Trump, who with 35 to 40 percent will continue to win primary contests.
If I were Donald Trump, instead of flying Governor Chris Christie around, which doesn’t bring any real electoral power to his campaign (and doesn’t Christie have a state to govern?) – I’d publicly float a list of possible names for vice president.
Trump must do something that clearly provides an advantage and pushes him above the 35 percent ceiling. He should seek out someone who is fearless, exhibits competency in the policy issues, who can bridge the divide he has supposedly created in the GOP — and yes, I will say it, he needs someone with military experience, because eventually the multiple deferments from Vietnam will become an issue — and someone needs to know what the nuclear triad is.
Regardless, it will be an interesting two weeks.