We may still be awaiting an October surprise, but we’re having one heckuva September, that’s for sure. Well, let’s clarify…HILLARY is having a heckuva September, and not in a good way.It’s been a dismal few weeks for her – not to mention her health scare, and it’s really showing up in the polls.
This week, we reported on Trump’s three-point lead in the LA Times poll and now this…Donald Trump leads Hillary Clinton by 5 percentage points in a Bloomberg Politics poll of Ohio, a gap that underscores the Democrat’s challenges in critical Rust Belt statesafter one of the roughest stretches of her campaign.
The Republican nominee leads Clinton 48 percent to 43 percent among likely voters in a two-way contest and 44 percent to 39 percent when third-party candidates are included.The poll was taken Friday through Monday, as Clinton faced backlash for saying half of Trump supporters were a “basket of deplorables” and amid renewed concerns about herhealth after a video showed her stumbling as she left a Sept. 11 ceremony with what her campaign later said was a bout of pneumonia.
Trump’s performance in the poll—including strength among men, independents, and union households—is better than in other recent surveys of the state. It deals a blow to Clinton after she enjoyed polling advantages nationally and in most battleground statesin August before the race tightened in September as more Republican voters unified around Trump.
Some of the Ohio demographic groups where Trump has the biggest edge over Clinton are white men without a college degree (+43 percentage points), white men overall (+27 percentage points), and white women without a college degree (+23 percentage points).
More than a third of poll participants, 38 percent, say either they or someone in their household has been unemployed because of layoffs or company closings during the past decade or looked for work but been unable to find a job. Within that group, Trump outperforms Clinton 51 percent to 38 percent.Now it must be said that party breakdown in the Bloomberg poll was 33 percent Republican, 29 percent Democrat and 34 percent independent. Bloomberg notes exit polling for the 2012 presidential election was 38 percent Democrat, 31 percent Republican and 31 percent independent.
In 2004, it was 40 percent Republican – which just goes to show you how important voter enthusiasm and turnout will be.
The pundits continue to say rally attendance is not an indication of voter support. But at least for the last few weeks, there does appear to be a correlation.
Having said that, if Hillary remains out completely out of the public eye for the next few days while she recovers from her “pneumonia,” will her support drop to zero? Probably not…but we can always hope.[Note: This article was written by Michele Hickford]