Donald Trump got a boost in the polls following the Republican National Convention — but, unfortunately, the same was true of Hillary following the Democrat National Convention. According to the Real Clear Politics Average, which aggregates dozens of polls, Donald Trump led in the polls for a brief time following the conclusion of the RNC, only for that to be reversed following the DNC.
Following the changes in the polls, Trump’s probability of victory fell sharply in FiveThirtyEight’s election forecast. FTE’s election models are extremely accurate. In 2008, FTE accurately predicted 49 of the 50 states’ results. In 2010, they accurately predicted 34 of the 37 contested Senate races, and 36 out of 37 gubernatorial races. Here’s what the odds of a Hillary and Trump victory are looking like now:
This is quite the reversal since the commencement of the RNC, when the odds showed a 50.1% chance of a Trump victory, and a 49.9% chance of a Hillary victory.
Aside from the possibility that FTE is screwing with us and just drawing a fish with the probabilities, Michelle Jesse reported earlier today that the polls may not be all they’re cracked up to be (and FTE’s model relies largely on polls). As she reported, quoting from Breitbart; On Sunday’s Breitbart News Daily with SiriusXM host Alex Marlow, political strategist Pat Caddell outlined his charge that Reuters tampered with its own daily tracking poll to manufacture a sudden surge for Hillary Clinton.“They not only changed their formula, to put Hillary ahead. They went back and changed the results, for a week of results where Trump was ahead, and then they turned those into Hillary leads,” said Caddell. “They also erased all the former polling off the site. They didn’t tweak their procedure – they cooked it.”
“Never in my life have I seen a news organization, and a supposedly reputable poll, do something so dishonest,” Caddell continued. “What they have done is, they decided the people who said, ‘oh, I’m never for someone’ – oh, those must be Hillary votes. They used to be Trump voters.”
Still, it’s unlikely that every poll is cooked. Trump’s post-convention bounce didn’t last — maybe Hillary’s won’t either.
[Note: This post was authored by Matt Palumbo. Follow him on Twitter @MattPalumbo12]