A brokered convention is becoming increasingly likely as John Kasich remains in the race despite it being mathematically impossible for him to win the 1,237 delegates needed to secure the nomination. Why else would be remain in the race (and continue fundraising) if he wasn’t banking on a brokered convention?Similarly, we can derive from prediction markets that gamblers believe there’s a 2.3 percent chance that Paul Ryan will be the Republican nominee, and a 0.3 percent Mitt Romney will be. Obviously, neither are currently running for president (although Paul Ryan did receive an endorsement from John Boehner), but the fact anyone puts money on their nomination means someone thinks there’s a chance.
As reported by Townhall, it’s not just speculators betting that there will be both a brokered convention, and a person who isn’t currently running scoring the nomination.
With a brokered convention looking increasingly likely, don’t assume the final battle would come down to Cruz, Trump, and Kasich. That, at least, is what Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker believes.
“I think if it’s an open convention, it’s very likely it would be someone who’s not currently running,” he told The Capital Times of Wisconsin on Thursday.“I mean, who knows. The one thing I qualify — it’s like the qualifications you see on those ads you see for car dealerships. I think any of us who comment on this election have to qualify that almost every prediction’s been off, so it’s hard to predict anything,” Walker continued.
Walker hasn’t yet endorsed a candidate, but many suspect he will throw his support behind Sen. Ted Cruz ahead of The Badger State’s primary on April 5.
So who would an outside nominee be in the case of a brokered convention? So far it appears Paul Ryan could be a likely pick, but as previously mentioned, his odds of winning at a brokered convention are in the single digits. But is Scott Walker dropping a subtle hint that he’d like a swipe at it?[Note: This post was authored by Matt Palumbo. Follow him on Twitter @MattPalumbo12]