CNN/ORC released new polls today showing what hypothetical head-to-heads in the presidential election would look like. At this point it’s most likely the nominees will be Hillary and Trump, and the polls show that’s a a losing proposition.It’s two other Republican candidates who could beat Hillary in a head-to-head: Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio, who are placed in second and third place, respectively.
To quote the details from Red State:Hillary 52, Trump 44 (Hillary +8; was Hillary +1 in the prior poll)
Rubio 50, Hillary 47 (Rubio +3; was Rubio +3 in the prior poll)
Cruz 49, Hillary 48 (Cruz +1; was Cruz +3 in the prior poll)
Yet again, as we have seen repeatedly, Rubio wins, Trump loses, and Cruz is in a dogfight but much more competitive than Trump. And more worrisome for Republicans backing Trump or Democrats facing the prospect of Rubio, the first two results show the winner hitting the magic 50 percent mark.
Note that the movement from the last CNN/ORC poll is a little bit bad for Cruz, very bad for Trump, but status quo for Rubio, who has led Hillary in the last four CNN/ORC polls having trailed her by 16 in the first poll taken when he jumped in the race. Trump has trailed Hillary in the last five CNN/ORC polls. Rubio would start the general election ahead, Trump would start it in a big hole.Trump’s odds aren’t any better in a populist vs. populist battle against Bernie Sanders – though ALL Republicans lose to Sanders in a hypothetical head-to-head.
According to Real Clear Politics, 3/4 of the polls estimating the results of a Trump vs. Hillary head to head predict Hillary coming out as the winner, by an average spread of +3. By comparison, every single poll testing Rubio, Cruz, and Kasich against Clinton shows Clinton losing.
[Note: This post was authored by The Analytical Economist]