Yes, it’s just one poll. But as I’ve said before, one of the most interesting aspects of polls, IMHO, is looking at the trend within the same poll from one period to next.
And in the case of the latest Reuters/Ipsos poll, the change since last month’s edition of the same survey is rather dramatic. After trailing Donald Trump by almost 20 points last month, Sen. Ted Cruz is now in a statistical dead heat with the GOP frontrunner.
Via The Hill:
Republican presidential hopeful Ted Cruz is in a dead heat with rival Donald Trump, according to a new Reuters/Ipsos poll.
Trump leads with 39.5 percent support nationally, with Cruz behind at 35.2 percent — within the poll’s margin of error.
Trump has dominated GOP presidential polls for months.
Other than Cruz, the only candidate to come within 7 points of Trump in this poll was Ben Carson, during his brief popularity spike in November.
Of course, we all know how that worked out — and it’s a reminder of just how quickly things can change in the race.
Cruz trailed Trump by almost 20 points in last month’s edition of the same survey.
The poll’s margin of error was 4.8 points.
As the GOP field has narrowed, many polls and pundits have suggested anti-Trump voters are increasingly rallying around Cruz as the best chance to stop Trump.
Of course, all eyes are on Wisconsin tonight, where polls suggest a tight race between Trump and Cruz — with Cruz up by 4.7 according to the latest Real Clear Politics average. Many are viewing tonight’s results as an important momentum prize, beyond just the delegates alone. Some argue that if Trump wins tonight, it’s game over, while if Cruz wins, it greatly increases the odds of a contested convention.
[Note: This article was written by Michelle Jesse, Associate Editor]