Remember when Donald Trump first announced his bid for the presidency more than a year ago? Almost from the moment he announced until he received the Republican nomination, we heard the continuous chorus from pundits and the media: Trump can’t possibly win.
So here we are now, the convention behind us — and, despite much nay-saying and attempts to stop him, Donald Trump is indeed the 2016 GOP nominee for president. And, yes, here we are again hearing the same chorus about Trump not being able to win, and suggestions that he will even lose in a “landslide.”
We reported on a Zogby poll just the other day that seems to turn this narrative on its head, showing a statistical tie between the two candidates, with Hillary Clinton at 38% and Donald Trump at 36%.
And, now, here are two more national polls that seem to tell a similar story.
The new Rasmussen survey of likely voters out today shows Clinton with 41% support to Trump’s 39%. Meanwhile, check out the latest data from the USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times “Daybreak” poll of 3,000 eligible voters:Yep, that’s Hillary Clinton in the blue and Donald Trump in the red (of course) — at 44.0% to 43.4%.
Another key point from the Rasmussen survey is that, among independent voters, Trump still holds a significant lead of 38% to Clinton’s 29%. This is similar to what the Zogby poll from earlier this week found, which showed Trump winning independents 32% to 26% over Clinton. (The USC Dornstrife/LA Times poll doesn’t highlight results by party affiliation.) It’s often said that elections are won or lost with independents, so this is an important trend to watch.
The other “x” factor many of us have pondered in this unprecedented election cycle, is whether polls may underrepresent Trump’s support. Given the job the left and the media have done to try to paint anyone who dare support him as bigots or morally inept, are people less willing to voice support for him even via a poll?
Of course, we still have 81 days, four debates (3 presidential, 1 vice presidential) and who knows how many October surprises to go until election day. With that in mind, coupled with these recent poll numbers showing a two-point race (or less), you might have to question anyone who suggests this race is anywhere close to over.
[Note: This article was written by Michelle Jesse, Associate Editor]