On the eve of the Wisconsin primary, two new polls for the state have been released. And, yes, each suggests a different candidate will be claiming victory tomorrow night in the Badger State. And, no, Gov. John Kasich is not one of them.
The latest Emerson College Polling Society survey released Monday suggests Sen. Ted Cruz has widened his lead over Donald Trump since its last poll done in mid-March — from one percentage point to five. Newsmax recaps the findings:
- Ted Cruz: 40 percent
- Donald Trump, 35 percent
- John Kasich, 21 percent
This shows a major shift toward Cruz since the last Emerson poll was conducted in mid-March. In that poll, Cruz had only a paper-thin lead, beating out Trump 36 percent to 35 percent. Kasich enjoyed a two-point boost from 19 percent in the same period.
Emerson College Polling Society conducted this poll from March 30-April 3, using an automated phone system. Pollsters surveyed 549 people likely to vote in the Republican primary, with a margin of error of 4.1 percentage points.
The trend over the past few weeks in the Emerson poll certainly suggests positive news for Cruz. However, the new poll released this afternoon by American Research Group tells a different story. As Breitbart reports:Billionaire businessman Donald Trump has taken a 10-point lead over Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) in Wisconsin in the final hours before the critical primary on Tuesday, a new poll released on Monday afternoon shows. The bombshell new polling data, from American Research Group (ARG), show Trump’s 42 percent towering over Cruz’s 32 percent in the Badger State. Ohio Gov. John Kasich, for whom it is already mathematically impossible to win the nomination outright before the GOP convention in Cleveland in July, lurks back at 23 percent.
The poll surveyed 400 likely voters and has a five percent margin of error. It was conducted from April 1 to April 3.
The Washington Post‘s Chris Cillizza signaled this poll is a “siren” worth looking at.
SIREN: Trump 42, Cruz 32 Kaisch 23 in new Wisconsin poll https://t.co/zpDUXxOCg2
— Chris Cillizza (@TheFix) April 4, 2016
The results are certainly different than other recent polling that has shown Cruz with a similar lead over Trump. ARG has had mixed results throughout the campaign, finding Trump a point back behind Cruz in Texas. Cruz ended up winning Texas by big margins, well more than 10 points. In Florida, ARG had Trump up 25 points over Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) 78%–seven points too many. But in New Hampshire, ARG had Trump up 16 points–which was about right. Trump won the Granite State by 20 points.
Marquette and Fox Business polls released last week showed Cruz with 10-point leads over Trump and a smattering of other polling over the last week showed Trump trailing Cruz by around five to seven percent.
It’s unclear if this new ARG poll has any truth to it, but Trump and Cruz have been dueling on the campaign trail over the past few days throughout the state. Both have been barnstorming the state, going all in for Wisconsin.
Many pundits are predicting a Cruz victory tomorrow night — but, then again, we all know how right pundits have been throughout this primary season so far. Wisconsin is an open primary, which has thus far seemed to favor Trump in the end.
Either way, much significance is being placed on Wisconsin as a bellwether of Trump’s ability to clinch the nomination before the convention, or on the other hand, Cruz’s momentum in turning the tide of this primary race. John Kasich, well, yeah, he’s still the guy who won’t leave and was never actually invited.
[Note: This article was written by Michelle Jesse, Associate Editor]