The great paradox of the Democrat primary is the apparent inverse correlation between excitement for a candidate and their poll numbers.
Millennials are voting for Sanders in droves – and yet Hillary has doubled – and nearly tripled – the number of votes Sanders has received in certain primary states.
As Sanders had been crushed in the primaries thus far, the enthusiasm gap between his fans and Hillary’s persists.
Via the Seattle Times
Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders drew thousands of supporters to Seattle’s Safeco Field on Friday, making a final push for a decisive win over Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton in Saturday’s Democratic caucuses.To cheers from an estimated 15,000 on hand, Sanders predicted a big turnout would give him a victory in the caucuses and send a message “loud and clear, the billionaire class cannot have it all.” It was Sanders’ fifth rally in Washington in the past week — and it took place at his largest venue yet. Safeco Field’s capacity for Mariners games is 47,500. By 7:45 p.m., as the crowd continued to wait for Sanders to appear, it had filled most of the stadium’s lower bowl, from first base to the left field foul pole, but upper decks remained empty.
The enthusiasm for the Sanders vs. Clinton race has party officials predicting Saturday’s caucuses could approach 2008’s record participation of 250,000. An estimated 35,000 sent in absentee ballots — an unprecedented surge in those early votes, which were allowed for voters who attested they could not attend caucuses due to illness, disability, religious observance, military service or work conflict.
Reports of the demise of the Sanders campaign have not been greatly exaggerated. Bernie would need to garner nearly 80 percent more delegates (while Clinton gains none) just to tie with her.
Most of Hillary’s lead comes from a cushion provided to her from super-delegates. Without them Sanders would have 75 percent as many delegates as Hillary (as opposed to 56 percent now). The Democrat establishment, like the Republican establishment, has its “chosen candidates.”
There are caucuses held in Alaska, Hawaii, and Washington today which the Senator is expected to win, but this is unlikely to change the course of the nomination. There is still over a 90 percent chance that Hillary will be the nominee.
[Note: This post was authored by Matt Palumbo. Follow him on Twitter @MattPalumbo12]