As anyone who’s checked their 401(k) balance has been made happily aware, the stock market has rallied since President Donald Trump won the 2016 election, and has only continued to rally after he took office. Standing at just over 18,000 the day of the election, the Dow Jones Industrial average quickly surged past the 20,000 mark by the end of January, then past 21,000 by March.
That’s great for everyone who owns stocks, but what about the average American? In the case of this rally, the stock market was a leading indicator, moving up in anticipation of favorable economic policies from Trump, mainly in regards to taxes and regulation.
But when will we see all those jobs from an economy improved due to reducing burdensome taxes and regulations? Apparently we’ll be seeing some now in anticipation of those policies too.
According to CNBC: Companies added jobs at a blistering pace in February, with a notable shift away from the service-sector positions that have dominated hiring for years, according to a report Wednesday.
Employment in the private sector surged by 298,000 for the month, with goods producers adding 106,000, ADP and Moody’s Analytics said. Construction jobs swelled by 66,000 and manufacturing added 32,000.The total shattered market expectations of 190,000, according to economists surveyed by ADP. The blockbuster report also solidified market expectations for the Fed to hike interest rates next week. Probability for an increase jumped to 91 percent after the release, according to the CME. The report encompassed the first full month under President Donald Trump, who has pledged to rebuild the nation’s aging infrastructure system.
This amounts to the highest projection for a single month of job creation by ADP over the past 12-months.
Is Trump to thank for this, though? Moody’s chief economist Mark Zandi, who last year branded Donald Trump as the “greatest threat to the recovery,” now says yes.
“Confidence is playing a large role,” Zandi told CNBC. “Businesses are anticipating a lot of good stuff — tax cuts, less regulation. They are hiring more aggressively.” Zandi had previously predicted that Trump’s policies would cause about 3.5 million Americans to lose their jobs, causing unemployment to jump to 7 percent, all while home prices would fall and the stock market would plummet, based on Trump’s aggressive deportation policies. He’s rightfully walked back those comments.
Zandi has also predicted that the economy could potentially “soar than crash” under Trump, so he’s got his bases covered when it comes to hedging his predictions.
There are still four years ahead of us – but so far, so good.
[Note: This post was authored by Matt Palumbo. Follow him on Twitter @MattPalumbo12]