Journalist Nate Silver has been made famous for his statistical analysis of baseball and politics. He’s editor-in-chief of the website FiveThirtyEight (named after the 538 electors in the electoral college), which contains much of the same sort of “data journalism” he’s known for.
His election forecasts have been among the most accurate available. In 2008 he accurately predicted 49 of the 50 states’ results. In 2010, he accurately predicted 34 of the 37 contested senate races, and 36 out of 37 gubernatorial races. FiveThirtyEight’s models are now predicting the odds of a Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump presidency, and the odds are shifting.
His model shows Hillary Clinton still as the predicted winner – but momentum is changing.
Just weeks ago on July 12th, Trump had a 22.5 percent chance of winning, compared to 77.3 percent for Hillary. Since then, Trump’s odds have nearly doubled – with some of the boost coming from the convention. Now Trump has a 41.7 percent of winning compared to 58.3 for Hillary.
As the Democrats go into their convention, they’re healing from a massive email leak that Wikileaks just published. Debbie Wasserman Schultz won’t even be speaking at the DNC any more, in an effort to “keep the peace” in the party as released emails showed heavy favoritism towards Hillary Clinton during the primary.Trump got a boost during the RNC – but the Republican Party wasn’t in damage control mode during their convention (not counting Melaniagate and Ted Cruz being booed off the stage). Hopefully we’ll see the DNC have the opposite effect on Hillary Clinton’s odds of winning.
[Note: This post was authored by Matt Palumbo. Follow him on Twitter @MattPalumbo12]