For the past few months, we’ve been tracking the presidential race through a website called electionbettingodds.com. The website, put together by FOX News’ John Stossel, aggregates betting odds on the election and calculates an implied probability of a certain event happening. For example, if two people are betting that Hillary Clinton will become president for every one betting on Donald Trump, there’s an implied 66.6 percent chance of a Hillary victory (two to one odds).
Since he clinched the nomination (well, at least until or unless something crazy happens next week at the convention), the betting odds heavily favored Trump selecting Jeff Sessions or Newt Gingrich as his vice presidet. But all of a sudden, Mike Pence went from having practically no one putting money behind him, to an implied 59.3 percent chance of being selected in the course of two days. So what happened? As The Hill Reports:
A Donald Trump campaign stop in Indiana scheduled for Tuesday is raising speculation that the presumptive Republican presidential nominee will announce Gov. Mike Pence as his running mate.
The Washington Times reported Sunday evening that Pence has a “95 percent probability” of being Trump’s choice, according to sources close to the campaign and to the governor.
The first-term Indiana governor’s name has surfaced in recent weeks as a contender for the position. Pence tepidly endorsed Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas before the state’s May primary but later backed Trump, praising the chance to “take a new direction” in Washington.
“The kind of leadership that I truly do believe, to borrow a phrase, will make America great again,” Pence said during a Thursday campaign stop, according to The Associated Press.
Others said to be under consideration for vice president are former Speaker Newt Gingrich, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and Sen. Jeff Sessions of Alabama.
Trump has said he will make an announcement before the Republican National Convention, which begins on July 18. Pence, who is seeking reelection to a second term as governor, would have to withdraw from that contest by noon on July 15 if he’s going to run as Trump’s vice president.
According to CNN, Gingrich is still “actively lobbying” to be Trump’s VP, so he could still have a shot. Though according to this report, his odds are just south of five percent.
[Note: This post was authored by Matt Palumbo. Follow him on Twitter @MattPalumbo12]