Looking at the financial community’s predictions on the immediate effects of a Donald Trump presidency would seem to confirm a herd mentality among those making such guesstimates.
Prior to the election, British bank Barclays predicted the S&P 500 would lose 11 to 13 percent if Trump won, but would rise two to three percent if Hillary won. Citibank predicted a five percent drop-off under a Trump victory. J.P. Morgan predicted a three percent rise following a Hillary victory, compared to markets “falling further” if Trump won.
They were right for a few hours on election night, when it became evident that Donald Trump would emerge the victor, and stock futures dropped off. But they recovered by the next day, and have rallied consistently ever since, with the Dow Jones finally breaking the 20,000 mark (and then later the 21,000 mark).
Since then, there’s been a complete 180 when it comes to the consensus on Trump’s effects on the markets. According to The Washington Times:
They may not agree with him, but they love his effect on the investment climate. A unique new survey of hedge fund managers, brokers and other financial wizards finds that 74 percent give President Trump high marks for his positive effect on the stock market, though only 40 percent approve of his job performance so far.“We were surprised,” said Eric W. Noll, CEO of Covergex, the global brokerage firm that conducted the wide-ranging and comprehensive poll that gauged the “Trumperature” of the respondents and the political climate. “It is clear from the results that most of the respondents feel President Trump will have a positive impact on the near-term prospects of the financial market, even if they don’t necessarily agree with his overall vision for the country,” Mr. Noll added.
Another 57 percent of the respondents expect stocks to do better over the next four years with Mr. Trump in office, while only 21 percent said stocks would improve had Hillary Clinton won the White House.
A majority — 54 percent — also said Mr. Trump’s proposed tax cuts would be the most beneficial to U.S. equity markets, followed by deregulation and infrastructure spending.
As they all learned, hindsight is 20/20.
[Note: This post was written by Matt Palumbo. Follow him on Twitter @MattPalumbo12]