It wasn’t just the media pundits who got everything wrong about the election and its consequences – the financial industry (which heavily backed Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump) was dead wrong too.
British bank Barclays predicted the S&P 500 would lose 11 to 13 percent if Trump won, but would rise two to three percent if Hillary won. Citibank predicted a five percent drop-off under a Trump victory. J.P. Morgan predicted a three percent rise following a Hillary victory, compared to markets “falling further” if Trump won. They appeared correct at first. As the night progressed on November 8th and it became clearer that Trump would emerge the victor as he won key battleground states, S&P futures were down 97.25 points, or 4.6 percent at their worst.
Economics Nobel Laureate and New York Times columnist Paul Krugman observed that “markets are plunging” then writing “If the question is when markets will recover, a first-pass answer is never.” By the time the market opened the following morning, the futures had reversed most of their losses, and the major indexes closed higher than the day before. By the week’s end, the Dow Jones index has increased by 3.3 pecent, closing at a record high, while when Obama won in 2008, by the end of the week the Dow was down 4.1 percent (though, in all fairness, this was during the 2008 economic meltdown).
While there’s no guarantee any trend will continue, Trump has managed to set a historic number of stock market records before even taking office. As the Gateway Pundit reported: The ‘TRUMP STOCK MARKET RALLY’ continues to shatter the record books. As a matter of fact, what we have seen since President-elect Donald Trump won the presidential election on November 8th, has never occurred before.
Out of 21 days since the election, the Dow has reached all time closing highs 13 of these days! On another five of these days the Dow landed at its second highest close ever up to that date!For more than 60 percent of the closings since the election, the Dow has reached new highs. For more than 85 percent of the closing bells the Dow has either reached a new high or its second highest closing to date. For only three days since the election, the Dow has not reached one of these two milestones!
We downloaded all daily closing amounts of the Dow Jones Industrial Average since January 5th of 1905 – more than 110 years of daily Dow closing data to compare the ‘Trump Rally’ to other rallies in the history of the Dow. From an analysis of this data, there are only 15 times in the history of the Dow where the Dow set new closing highs for 13 days or more in a 20 day period.
So far, so good. What a bummer it must be to some folks that it isn’t the end of the world after all.
[Note: This post was authored by Matt Palumbo. Follow him on Twitter @MattPalumbo12]