Has conventional wisdom been right about a single thing this election?
As we’re all aware, the overwhelming majority of polls predicted a Hillary victory, both during the entirety of the race and on Election Day. A number of sophisticated statistical models also predicted a high chance of a Hillary victory, and even the betting odds — which tend to be more accurate than polls — gave Hillary roughly an 85 percent chance of winning on Election Day.
And they were all wrong.
Not only that, we were told that if Trump did win, it would mean a disaster for the stock market (at least in the short term). That appeared to be the case as it became clearer a Trump victory was imminent as the night progressed. Futures on the Dow Jones Index were down 800 points at one point, and the VIX index (the “fear” index) also spiked. The Wall Street Journal predicted the VIX would spike as much as 60 percent in the event of a Trump victory.
And what actually happened? As of writing, the VIX is down 16 percent, and the DOW is up one percent (though a 5 percent decline was expected by most banks if Trump won).Trump was hardly the Wall Street disaster he was predicted to be — and if you look at the trading floor today, it’s clear they aren’t Hillary fans. As she gave her concession speech this morning, traders had chanted a few words of their own.
Traders on @NYSE floor booing Kaine/Clinton appearance, shouting "lock her up."— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) November 9, 2016
Watch some of the reporting on the incident below:
Ironically, she better hope she gets locked up now so President Obama can pardon her before President Trump takes office.
[Note: This post was authored by Matt Palumbo. Follow him on Twitter @MattPalumbo12]