For the longest time now, we’ve relied on both polls and betting odds to predict the outcome of the election. While imperfect, on average, Donald Trump has trailed Hillary Clinton in the polls, and had a lower probability of winning derived from the betting odds.
Those polls and odds are unsettling, but there is a silver lining: the government will most likely remain divided – -at least as far as party control. Republicans will likely hold their majority in both the House and Senate, which will at least enable them to block Hillary’s progressive agenda (as much as they were able to block Barack Obama’s progressive agenda). As Red State reported: The latest FiveThirtyEight forecast for Senate control is (relatively) good news for the GOP, minimizing losses and keeping it the Senate in their hands. The margin, however, is incredibly close, and it is still incredibly possible that the chamber flips. Here’s the map.
Keeping the Senate would be huge for Republicans, as it would keep the Congress in complete Republican control (though just barely). If it were to play out as seen above, then the Republicans can count themselves very lucky.
However, Silver’s site also shows a good possibility for a 50-50 split on seats, which means the party in power (still likely Democrats) gets control of the Senate as the Vice President is the final vote in the case of a tie. In keeping the House of Representatives, the Republicans would have the opportunity to stop the Democratic administration’s agenda, but not having both chambers cripples any chance of the Republican agenda getting pushed forward in any immediate way.John Stossel’s ElectionBettingOdds.com has similar results, predicting an even split between Republicans and Democrats in the Senate. There is no question that the House will maintain its Republican majority however.
If Hillary is to win the presidency, and Republicans hold the Congress, it’ll only be a few months until the same people who were branded as “racist” for opposing Obama’s agency magically turn into sexists overnight.
[Note: This post was authored by Matt Palumbo. Follow him on Twitter @MattPalumbo12]