On Tuesday, Sarah Palin endorsed Donald Trump for president – one of Trump’s highest profile endorsements to date.
If you read the headlines, you’d get the impression this was a disaster for Trump.
“Sarah Palin endorses Donald Trump in rambling speech,” read the NY Daily News. “Sarah Palin’s rambling, remarkable and at times hard to understand endorsement of Donald Trump,” read the Washington Post. “Sarah Palin Endorses Donald Trump in Raucous Speech,” read ABC News.
Since nothing Trump has said thus far seems to have cost him any support, did anyone really think a Palin endorsement would be that straw that suddenly breaks the camel’s back?
The polls are changing on a daily basis – but what isn’t changing is the direction of Trump’s lead. What may, however, surprise some is which candidate’s numbers have dropped significantly in the days since Sarah Palin endorsed his competitor.
As the Gateway Pundit reports:While the big story is the National Review article, it appears that (according to the Reuters 5 day rolling poll) over a third of Cruz’s followers have abandoned him for Trump in the last 3 days since Palin announced for Trump. That’s a pretty big story. Cruz has gone from 16.3% down to 10.5% while Trump has (in the same 3 days) gone from 33.4% to 40.6%.
Here is how the Reuters poll looked on January 19 – the day Sarah Palin endorsed Donald Trump.
And here is how the Reuters poll looked on Friday January 22.
Trump went up 6 points while Ted Cruz dropped six points.
The Palin endorsement helped Trump climb most in the polls for the age 50-65 age demographic compared to others.
This is, of course, just one poll, and various factors contribute to each candidate’s poll numbers. And it’s clear polls can and do change quickly.
It’ll be interesting to see what happens if/when other high-profile figures — for example, former GOP presidential nominees John McCain and Mitt Romney — come out and endorse someone. McCain certainly won’t be endorsing Trump, considering Trump’s questioning of McCain as a war hero, and Romney has steered clear of the public light for now.
[Note: This post was authored by The Analytical Economist]