Throughout this entire election, we’ve often relied on what the betting odds have said in addition to traditional polls when making predictions. In theory, the betting odds are supposed to be more accurate than polls on average, because bettors take into account factors besides polls, are putting their money where their mouths are, and insider trading in election betting is legal, among other reasons.
For the majority of the race, the odds have been in Hillary Clinton’s favor. But does that mean the end for Donald Trump? Many pundits have been pointing to the UK’s Brexit vote, as the betting odds roughly averaged a 70 percent chance of a “remain” vote leading up to the vote. The day before the vote, the odds showed an 85.1 percent chance of a remain vote. Clearly the conventional wisdom there was wrong.
Trump himself has compared his campaign to Brexit, drawing parallels to the success of his “unconventional, anti-establishment run for the White House.” As the odds still favor Hillary, are we in for another Brexit moment? One oddsmaker thinks so.
As Wayne Allen Root writes in Breitbart; I’m the only national political commentator (and Vegas oddsmaker) who has predicted a Brexit-like election result for Donald Trump since day one.
I’ve stuck with my prediction through thick and thin, through derision, through laughter, through polls showing Hillary leading by 13 points, through every “expert” predicting a Hillary landslide up until only two weeks ago. Don’t look now, but I’m about to look very smart. All the ingredients have fallen perfectly into place for “Trexit,” our own version of Brexit starring Donald Trump.My final prediction? It’s the same one I told personally to Donald Trump a week ago. I was opening speaker at Trump’s rally in Las Vegas in front of 10,000 fans. When I saw Donald backstage I told him, “Here’s my prediction… You will win by a 10-point landslide… but Democrats cheat by 8 points… so the final official election results will show you won by 2.” My prediction is based on three things: Brexit, Goldman Sachs and what I call the ANGRY WHITE ELECTORATE effect. Let’s start with Goldman Sachs.
It was only two weeks ago that Goldman Sachs actually felt the need to issue a report arguing this was not Brexit. It was very clear to me at that moment, the very fact that the most powerful and politically-connected company on Wall Street felt the need to publicly debunk the Brexit angle was proof positive this was in fact Brexit.
In every poll before the shocking Brexit result, Brexit was trailing by an average of 4.4 points. But a few million white working class voters either weren’t on the pollsters radar, or weren’t talking publicly about their vote. Brexit shocked the pollsters and “experts” and won. Skip ahead to today. Trump trails by 2, 3, or 4 in every single poll- ABC, CBS, Fox, Rasmussen, Bloomberg. The Real Clear Politics average of all polls shows Hillary leads by 2.6 points. None of this takes into account the most accurate poll of 2012 that predicted Obama’s victory exactly on the number. The IBD/TIPP poll reports Trump UP by 2 points nationally as of today.
Those with an appetite for risk are willing to take a chance that history will repeat itself. Nearly all last minute bets (91 percent) on the election are for Trump, and we’ll find out before the end of the day who’s right after all.
[Note: This post was written by The Analytical Economist]