From day one of the election, we’ve been told that Donald Trump had alienated Hispanic voters. Building a wall with Mexico and making Mexico pay for it? Actually daring enforce the laws on illegal immigration and deport illegals? All stances that would alienate the Hispanic vote, according to conventional wisdom in the media.
But let’s examine the beliefs of Hispanic voters themselves. It should come to no surprise to the reasonable among us that Hispanic citizens who jumped through all the legal hurdles put in place to immigrate legally aren’t exactly happy with those who cut in front of the line.
According to the Pew Research Center, around 45 percent of Hispanic adults say that illegal immigration has a positive effect, compared to 31 percent who think it has a negative effect. Keep in mind that the poll includes all Hispanic adults, including those who are American born, not immigrants. While it’s no clear majority for Trump’s position, it hardly means that he can’t expect a single Hispanic vote (especially when the majority of Hispanics polled say that they’d support a candidate who doesn’t share their stance on immigration).
Throughout this entire election there’s been talk about Trump’s “hidden” support – those who support The Donald, but don’t do so publicly for fear of social backlash. Could this be especially the case with Hispanics? According to the Washington Examiner, there’s good reason to think he’ll get a decent Hispanic turnout today, as the most recent polls are even more optimistic. An election eve poll finds sweeping support for immigration enforcement even among most Hispanics in the United States, potentially bolstering Donald Trump’s presidential bid.
The Pulse Opinion Research survey found that 51 percent of Hispanics believe that there has been “too little” done to enforce immigration laws. What’s more, by a margin of 49 percent to 36 percent, Hispanics “support a policy causing illegal immigrants to return home by enforcing the law.”Overall, the survey done for the Center for Immigration Studies, found that most Americans, 54 percent, believe that the administration has done too little to enforce immigration laws and 56 percent support returning illegals. But the findings cloud that reasoning since more Hispanics support a deportation policy for illegals. Another key finding: Most Americans want a cap of 500,000 immigrants a year, about half the current level.
If Trump loses miserably tonight in the Hispanic demographic, it won’t be because of ideological differences, it’ll be a reflection of the media’s influence in convincing the public that any policies the elite don’t like are “racist.”
[Note: This post was written by The Analytical Economist]