Today is the big day, and while most have yet to vote — let alone have votes counted — we do have some early data to work with.
Of all the swing states Trump has to win to beat Hillary today, let’s focus on one: New Hampshire. Despite being surrounded by blue states, New Hampshire itself has long been one of the “battleground states” in national elections. In 2012, Barack Obama beat Mitt Romney by 5.5 percentage points in New Hampshire. Now, based on polling thus far, Trump is dominating Hillary in New Hampshire by an even larger margin than Obama beat Romney.
As USA Today reported: As the world waits with bated breath for the results of Tuesday’s contentious presidential election, its eyes turned briefly to three sleepy hamlets in rural New Hampshire, as their residents — fewer than 100 total — became the first in the nation to cast their ballots.
In Dixville Notch, Hillary Clinton beat Donald Trump 4-2. Libertarian Gary Johnson received one vote, and the 2012 Republican candidate, Mitt Romney received a surprise write-in ballot. In the slightly larger burg of Hart’s Location, Clinton won with 17 votes to Trump’s 14. Johnson got three votes, while write-ins Bernie Sanders and John Kasich each got one. And in Millsfield, Trump won decisively, 16-4, with one write-in for Bernie Sanders.
So, in the three New Hampshire towns with midnight voting, Trump came out ahead 32-25.But just how representative are such small communities? Dixville voted for the Republican in every election since 1960 — including Barry Goldwater who lost in a landslide to Lyndon Johnson — until going for Obama in 2008, and splitting the vote between Romney and Obama in 2012. Since reviving midnight voting, Hart’s Location voted for Dole in 1996, Bush in 2000 and 2004, and, like Dixville, broke with tradition to vote for Obama in 2008 and 2012. Dixville had a better track record in the GOP primary and predicted every Republican nominee since 1968 (counting ties in 1980 and 2012), but that streak came to a crashing halt when John Kasich edged out the future nominee, Donald Trump 3-2.
Now we just wait and see what the rest of the day will show.
One thing’s for sure…it isn’t going to be dull.
[Note: This post was written by The Analytical Economist]