The statistics blog Five Thirty Eight (FTE) has had to revise the odds on Trump upward during every stage of his rise during this election.
In July, FTE writer Harry Enten posted a chart showing that based on net favorability, Trump was the least liked presidential candidate since 1980. “For this reason alone, Trump has a better chance of cameoing in another “Home Alone” movie with Macaulay Culkin — or playing in the NBA Finals — than winning the Republican nomination,” Enten said.
Back in November of 2015, FTE’s founder Nate Silver argued that regarding Trump winning the Republican primary, betting market odds placing Trump’s chances of victory at 20 percent were “substantially too high.”
So they were wrong on the nomination, giving Trump less than a twenty percent chance of winning it. Now, their election model is giving Trump a 32.6 percent chance of winning tomorrow’s election.
To put that in perspective, not only are their current odds of Trump winning the presidency greater than the odds he was given of winning the primary, FTE predicted on October 30th the Cubs’ total chance of winning the World Series at a measly 15 percent, which, they note, is “a smaller chance than FiveThirtyEight’s election forecast model gives Donald Trump to win the White House.” And with a day till the election, founder Nate Silver seems to be hedging his bets. As The Hill reported: Hillary Clinton is one state away from losing the presidential election, FiveThirtyEight’s Nate Silver said Sunday. While the Democratic presidential nominee has a 65.7 percent chance of winning the presidency on Tuesday, she is not “in a terribly safe position,” the pollster said on ABC’s “This Week.”
“The electoral map is actually less solid for Clinton than it was for Obama four years ago,” Silver said.
Silver came to notoriety by correctly predicting President Obama’s victories in 2008 and 2012.
Clinton is weaker among Midwestern voters, while Obama had leads in states like Ohio.
In FiveThirtyEight’s election forecast, Clinton has the 270 electoral votes needed to clinch the White House. “Clinton has about 270, so she’s one state away from losing the Electoral College,” he said. “You would rather be in her shoes than [Republican nominee] Donald Trump, but she’s not in a terribly safe position.”
Let that sink in for a second… she’s “one state away from losing”
Tomorrow is going to be a nail biter for sure. God help us if she wins.
[Note: This post was authored by The Analytical Economist]