If you judged reality by the mainstream media, you’d believe Bernie Sanders is the candidate energizing voters this election cycle.
Voters ARE energized this cycle, but it’s hardly for candidates just on the left. The left has one candidate energizing their base – and another pessimistically viewed and dreaded as the eventual nominee.
On the other hand, the right features a successful businessman, a neurosurgeon and an array of politicians with prosperous records.
There’s energy – but there’s an energy gap – and it doesn’t bode well for the left this election.
Via the Washington ExaminerRepublican voters are far more gung ho to vote in the fall presidential election than Democrats, a sign that two terms of Democratic ownership of 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. may be at an end. A new survey his company, the Tarrance Group, conducted for the centrist Republican Ripon Society uncovered an 11-point “intensity” gap among white Republicans and white Democrats.
“We had in 2010 a nine-point advantage on intensity. Going into 2014 we had a seven-point advantage on intensity, meaning our voters are more intense about voting. Right now we have an 11-point advantage,” he said. “I’ve never seen a double-digit advantage in terms of intensity to vote.”
In 2010, Republicans took control of the House. In 2014, they took over the Senate.
“Why is it 11? It’s intensity toward the president,” he explained.
A deeper plunge into the numbers, Goeas said, is even more remarkable.
For example, Republican women, who typically don’t express voting eagerness in levels as high as men, are equal for the first time, at 89 percent, he said. What’s more, on the issue of intensity, they are just three points back.
“Not only is there no gender gap, there’s no intensity gap with Republicans wanting to vote Republican this year, all driven by the president,” the strategist said.
His poll found that the economy is a huge driver in the election, as is the concern by voters that they are getting further away from achieving the American Dream. For example, 53 percent said “time is running out” for the country to get back on track.
And that might help Republicans reach African-Americans and Hispanics.
It’s apparently already happening among black and Latino middle-class voters, his poll revealed. Among African-Americans, for example, he found that 22 percent were voting Republican or undecided. Among Hispanics, 45 percent are already backing the GOP or are undecided.
For people who make race such a central issue, the Democrats have a diversity problem this cycle.
Sixty percent of votes in the Iowa caucus went to an African American and two Hispanic Americans. 100 percent of the Democrats went to whites.
And minority support is leaning more Republican this cycle. A poll in January found that “40 percent of blacks are lining up behind Trump, as are 45 percent of Hispanics, and even nearly 19 percent of Asians. Blacks and Hispanics, in fact, even support Trump at a higher level than whites..” For some contrast, Mitt Romney only got about 6 percent of the black vote.
The question now isn’t over which party will reclaim the White House next election, it’s which Republican candidate.
[Note: This post was authored by The Analytical Economist]