It’s becoming ever more clear that the election this November will be between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton – unless Hillary finds herself incarcerated.
The polls on a hypothetical head-to-head between the candidates appear to favor Hillary so far, with only one of the five polls Real Clear Politics tracks predicting Trump the victor.
Polls however are only one way of making political predictions. There are plenty of other variables that polls can’t capture which may sway an election.
As reported by The Daily Caller, A political science professor who claims his statistical model has correctly predicted the results of every election in the last 104 years has forecast that the odds of Donald Trump becoming America’s next president currently range from 97 percent to 99 percent.
Specifically, Norpoth predicts that Trump has a 97 percent chance of beating Hillary Clinton and a 99 percent chance of beating Bernie Sanders.As for forecasting the popular vote, Norpoth predicts Trump garnering 54.7%, compared to 45.3% for Hillary. Norpoth acknowledges that these results seem almost unbelievable (though even a nearly 10 point margin of victory over Hillary wouldn’t make it comparable to a blowout election such as Reagan vs. Mondale).
The model has been correct for every election since 1912 except for the 1960 election — which pitted winner John F. Kennedy against loser Richard Nixon.In total, Norpoth observed, his forecasting formula he has created has been correct 96.1 percent of the time since 1912.This forecast is at conflict with current betting odds on the election, which put Trump’s odds of entering the White House at 1 in 250. Who knows – maybe some people will have their bets pay off handsomely.
[Note: This post was authored by The Analytical Economist]