While Hillary Clinton may be currently leading Donald Trump in the polls, all the numbers aren’t in her favor.
As we’ve documented on numerous occasions before, some of the sensationalized polls this election have been deeply flawed. Many have over-sampled registered Democrats, and under-sampled registered Republicans. Other polls have biased their samples by skewing their demographics, stuffing their polls with a disproportionately large amount of Hispanic voters (who are mostly voting Hillary).
If there’s a gap we can prove – it’s an enthusiasm gap. How many people do you know who are voting for Hillary are actually enthusiastic about supporting her (or actually support her – not just oppose Donald Trump)? Donald Trump joked at the Alfred E. Smith dinner on Thursday night that the 1,000 people at the dinner were Hillary’s largest crowd of the season – and while he got booed for hounding Hillary, the truth isn’t far off.
While lagging in the polls, Trump has been drawing the major crowds. His base is much more energized – and thus more likely to get off their couches (well, since we’re talking about Republicans, maybe “take a lunch break” is a more appropriate way of putting it) and vote.
Since the party conventions in July (from August 1st through Saturday, October 22, 2016) Hillary has participated in only 34 campaign rallies to Trump’s 87. Of Hillary’s 34 campaign rallies where she was present, only a dozen of these events had crowds estimated at over 1,000 people.
Donald Trump on the other hand held 87 events in the same time period of which only 7 had crowds estimated at less than 1,000. Most, if not all, of these small crowds for Trump were special campaign events where he gave speeches on foreign policy, childcare, or his recent Gettysburg address, for example. Trump has held 80 events with crowds more than 1,000 in this same time period with 16 of these events with crowds 10,000 or greater.Trump averages more than 6,000 at his events while Hillary averages less than 1,000. Because Trump has many more events than Hillary, he averages getting in front of more than 6,700 per day compared to Hillary’s 380 per day in this time period. Because Trump has worked much harder he has 53 more events than Hillary, which has resulted in Trump having more than a half a million (530,000) more participants at his events than Hillary.
Hillary has taken 57 days off without participating in campaign rallies since July. She is either sick or her campaign thinks she’ll do better if she doesn’t get in front of people or her campaign doesn’t want to show the abysmal lack of interest in her and her events.
Trump is behind in the polls (if you believe them), but at least those saying they support him actually care about voting for him.
[Note: This post was written by The Analytical Economist]