Trump is still winning most of the primaries, but the clock is ticking down to the Republican National Convention. With a historic number of candidates competing in the early stages of the primary, many votes were siphoned off to losing candidates initially.
Both Trump and Cruz are in a tough spot. Trump needs 56 percent of the remaining delegates to secure the nomination, while Cruz needs 82 percent.
It’s anyone’s guess who delegates would pledge their allegiance to in a contested convention, but what’s not speculative is that there will be a contested convention. As Politico reports:
Republican insiders overwhelmingly believe this summer’s national convention will require multiple ballots to select the presidential nominee.
That’s according to The Politico Caucus — a panel of operatives, activists and strategists in 10 key battleground states — with roughly 90 percent of respondents saying neither Donald Trump nor Ted Cruz will win the nomination on the first ballot in Cleveland.It’s a marked shift from a month ago, when just half of insiders were predicting a contested convention. Since that time, Trump has romped to victory in states that awarded all their delegates to the winner, like Florida and Arizona. But Cruz bounced back this week in Wisconsin — and is also dominating in states like North Dakota, Colorado and Wyoming, where party insiders, not rank-and-file voters, pick the delegates. Cruz’s victory in Wisconsin, where he won 36 of the 42 delegates at stake, narrows Trump’s path to the nomination.
The math so far seems to indicate that they’re right. The pro-Trump Breitbart estimates that Trump will fall between 50-100 delegates short of the 1,237 needed to secure the nomination by the convention.
[Note: This post was authored by The Analytical Economist]