Allen B. West

Here’s my prognosis for the South Carolina primary – and it’s going to upset some folks

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Ok, here’s what I think is going to happen today in the South Carolina GOP presidential primary race, and it’s probably gonna make some folks mad. The bottom line is, two candidates may be “suspending” their campaign after the results of the contest. I would surmise that if former Florida Governor Jeb Bush doesn’t finish in the top three, he’ll be forced by the big money supporters to call it quits. Gov. Bush has pulled out all the stops — brought his mother and former president brother on the campaign trail. He needs to show some results. If he falters in South Carolina where it’s believed he has strong support, it will probably be the end.

I attribute Gov. Bush’s inability to make a connection on two things. First of all, it was a statement he made that seemed to hint he didn’t believe Republicans needed conservatives to win. An article in Breitbart.com from December 2014 addressed that item: “Even though moderate Republican candidates lose presidential elections without the conservative base (see: George H.W. Bush ’92, Bob Dole ’96, Sen. John McCain ’08, Mitt Romney ’12), former Florida Governor and potential presidential candidate Jeb Bush thinks conservatives are not needed to win the White House.

Bush believes that a presidential candidate who is “willing to lose the primary to win the general” has the best shot at the White House.

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“I don’t know if I’d be a good candidate or a bad one,” Bush said at a Wall Street Journal CEO Council meeting on Monday evening in Washington, D.C. “I kinda know how a Republican can win, whether it’s me or somebody else – and it has to be much more uplifting, much more positive, much more willing to be… ‘lose the primary to win the general’ without violating your principles. It’s not an easy task, to be honest with you.”

As well, Breitbart brought up this issue in the same piece: “Should Bush run, his embrace of comprehensive amnesty legislation and Common Core will put him at odds with conservative voters in the early primary states. Bush, who said he would make a decision in “short order” about whether he will be a presidential candidate, revealed on Monday that he thinks a moderate Republican who runs as a moderate in the primary has the best chance of winning the White House. And this hurt him as well, “Bush, who said that the pro-amnesty Journal is his “paper of record,” reportedly urged Republicans in Congress to not defund President Barack Obama’s executive amnesty and pass “sensible” immigration bills…”.

But it was his response to the question we all knew was coming regarding his brother, former President George W. Bush, and Iraq that was indeed painful to watch. And it took Jeb Bush nearly a week to dig out. Simply put, he should have responded to what’s happening in Iraq now, and not play the game of hindsight. He could’ve easily explained that the next president would inherit the failures of Barack Obama, not George W. Bush. So we shall see what happens for Gov. Jeb Bush today…

Now as for Dr. Ben Carson… he had a meteoric rise, and why not? He’s a brilliant man. Remember when a poll had him at 29 percent in Iowa? Dr. Carson is a soft-spoken, intelligent individual who is likable and has accomplished much. However, what turned out to be his Waterloo was predictable — the question on foreign policy and national security.

Dr. Carson did not do well understanding the Baltic States. He had a faux pas moment when he referred to the Islamic terrorist group Hamas as hummus. The most important title of president is commander in chief, and we need someone who can stare down Vladimir Putin — that model did not fit Dr. Carson. If he finishes dead last in South Carolina, it’s best to terminate this run and position himself to be surgeon general or head of Health and Human Services. Oops, I stand corrected, the next GOP president should go back, consolidate, and bring together the Department of Health, Education, and Welfare — those should never have been split out.

There’s no doubt in my mind that, by alphabetical order, Cruz, Rubio, and Trump will be in the top three. However, if Ohio Governor John Kasich could pull out a fourth place finish, he will keep himself viable and would end up being the last governor standing — who would have imagined that? If Kasich is part of a final four — yes it’s getting to be that time of the year – he’ll be able to claim something the other three cannot: political and legislative accomplishments.

Of course, the conservative base doesn’t trust Kasich, but he’d be the one with the only verifiable record. And if the other three continue with the “circular firing squad” approach and Kasich stays above the fray, it could bode well for him. The problem, is Gov. Kasich will not be successful in the March Super Tuesday contests. He’s banking on staying alive in order to get to the Midwestern primary contests.

It will be interesting today and one thing is for certain: There’s gonna be a dog fight for first place in South Carolina between Cruz and Trump. One of them is going to have two wins to the other’s one, and that is critical for momentum.

Now, if I said something that upset y’all, well, get over it. This was an analysis, strictly objective in nature. Oh yeah, the new Socialist party has a caucus in Nevada — who cares? Neither Hillary Clinton or Bernie Sanders are capable of leading this great nation.

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